Amathrendi ezimoto zikagesi: U-2023 kuzoba unyaka wokuchitheka kwamanzi ezimotweni ezinzima

Umbiko wakamuva osuselwe ekubikezelweni kwe-futurist u-Lars Thomsen ubonisa ikusasa lezimoto zikagesi ngokuhlonza izitayela eziyinhloko zemakethe.
Ingabe ukuthuthukiswa kwezimoto zikagesi kuyingozi?Ukwenyuka kwentengo kagesi, ukwehla kwamandla emali kanye nokushoda kwezimpahla zokusetshenziswa kwenze ukungabaza ngekusasa lezimoto zikagesi.Kodwa uma ubheka intuthuko yesikhathi esizayo yemakethe eYurophu, e-US nase-China, izimoto zikagesi zithola umhlaba wonke.
Ngokwemininingwane ye-SMMT, inani eliphelele lokubhaliswa kwezimoto ezintsha e-UK ngo-2022 lizoba ngu-1.61m, ezingu-267,203 kuzo izimoto ezisebenza ngogesi (BEVs), ezibalelwa ku-16.6% wokuthengiswa kwezimoto ezintsha, kanti ezingu-101,414 izimoto ezixhunywayo.ingxubevange.(PHEV) Ibalelwa ku-6.3% wokuthengiswa kwezimoto ezintsha.
Ngenxa yalokho, izimoto zikagesi ezihlanzekile seziphenduke isitimela sesibili esithandwa kakhulu e-UK.Cishe kunezimoto zikagesi ezingu-660,000 kanye nezimoto zikagesi ezihlanganisiwe ezingu-445,000 (ama-PHEV) e-UK namuhla.
Umbiko we-Juice Technology osekelwe ekubikezelweni kwe-futurist u-Lars Thomsen uqinisekisa ukuthi isabelo sezimoto zikagesi siyaqhubeka sanda, hhayi ezimotweni kuphela, kodwa nasezimotweni zokuthutha zomphakathi kanye nezimoto ezinzima.Iphuzu selisondele lapho amabhasi kagesi, amaveni namatekisi kuzobiza kakhulu kunezimoto ezihamba ngodizili noma zikaphethroli.Lokhu kuzokwenza isinqumo sokusebenzisa imoto kagesi hhayi nje ngokuzwakala kwemvelo, kodwa futhi isebenze ngokwezomnotho.
Iphuzu selisondele lapho amabhasi kagesi, amaveni namatekisi kuzobiza kakhulu kunezimoto ezihamba ngodizili noma zikaphethroli.
Kodwa-ke, ukuze ubhekane nenani elikhulayo lezimoto zikagesi, futhi ungabambezeli ukuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo, inethiwekhi yokushaja idinga ukunwetshwa kakhulu.Ngokwesibikezelo sika-Lars Thomsen, isidingo kuzo zontathu lezi zindawo zengqalasizinda eshajayo (ama-autobahns, izindawo okuyiwa kuzo nezindlu) sikhula kakhulu.
Ukukhetha izihlalo ngokucophelela nokukhetha isiteshi sokushaja esifanele sesihlalo ngasinye manje kubalulekile.Uma kuphumelele, uzokwazi ukuthola imali ngengqalasizinda ekhokhiswayo yomphakathi hhayi ngokuyifaka ngokwayo, kodwa ngamasevisi ahlobene, njengokuthengiswa kokudla neziphuzo endaweni eshajayo.
Uma sibheka ukuthuthukiswa kwemakethe yomhlaba wonke, kubonakala sengathi umkhuba wokukhiqiza amandla avuselelekayo awukaze ume futhi izindleko zale mithombo yamandla ziyaqhubeka nokuwa.
Njengamanje sibeka amanani ezimakethe zikagesi ngenxa yokuthi umthombo wamandla owodwa (igesi yemvelo) wenza ugesi ubize kakhulu (kanye nezinye izici zesikhashana ezimbalwa).Kodwa-ke, isimo samanje asisona unomphela, njengoba sihlobene eduze nezingxabano zezwe nezezimali.Esikhathini esimaphakathi kuya kwelide, ugesi uzoshibhile, ovuselelekayo uzotholakala futhi negridi izoba ngobuhlakani.
Ugesi uzoshibhile, amandla avuselelekayo azokhiqizwa, futhi amanethiwekhi azohlakanipha
Ukukhiqiza okusatshalaliswayo kudinga igridi ehlakaniphile ukuze kwabiwe amandla atholakalayo ngobuhlakani.Njengoba izimoto zikagesi zingashajwa kabusha noma nini lapho zingenzi lutho, zizodlala indima ebalulekile ekusimamiseni igridi ngokugcina iziqongo zokukhiqiza.Nokho, kulokhu, ukuphathwa komthwalo oguqukayo kuyimfuneko yazo zonke iziteshi ezintsha zokushaja ezingena emakethe.
Kunomehluko ophawulekayo phakathi kwamazwe aseYurophu mayelana nesimo sokuthuthukiswa kwengqalasizinda eshajayo.E-Scandinavia, eNetherlands naseJalimane, isibonelo, ukuthuthukiswa kwengqalasizinda sekuthuthuke kakhulu.
Inzuzo yengqalasizinda yokushaja ukuthi ukudalwa nokufakwa kwayo akuthathi isikhathi esiningi.Iziteshi zokushaja eziseceleni komgwaqo zingahlelwa futhi zakhiwe ngemva kwamasonto noma izinyanga, kuyilapho iziteshi zokushaja ekhaya noma emsebenzini zithatha isikhathi esincane nakakhulu kunokuhlela nokufakwa.
Ngakho-ke uma sikhuluma “ngengqalasizinda” asisho isikhathi esasithathwa ukuze kwakhiwe imigwaqo emikhulu namabhuloho ezikhungo zokuphehla amandla enuzi.Ngakho-ke namazwe asalele emuva angabamba ngokushesha okukhulu.
Esikhathini esimaphakathi, ingqalasizinda ekhokhiswayo yomphakathi izoba nomaphi lapho kunengqondo khona kubasebenzisi nakumakhasimende.Uhlobo lokushaja nalo ludinga ukujwayelana nendawo: phela, inanzuzoni ishaja engu-11kW AC egalaji likaphethiloli uma abantu befuna nje ukuma ukuze baphuze ikhofi noma badle kancane ngaphambi kohambo lwabo?
Kodwa-ke, amashaja epaki yezimoto zamahhotela noma epaki yokuzijabulisa enza umqondo owengeziwe kunamashaja e-DC ashesha kakhulu kodwa abizayo: izindawo zokupaka izimoto zamahhotela, izindawo zokuzijabulisa, izindawo ezihehwa izivakashi, izitolo ezinkulu, izikhumulo zezindiza namapaki amabhizinisi.Iziteshi zokushaja ze-AC ezingama-20 ngentengo ye-HPC eyodwa (Ishaja Yamandla Aphezulu).
Abasebenzisi bezimoto zikagesi baqinisekisa ukuthi ngesilinganiso samabanga ansuku zonke angama-30-40 km (18-25 miles), asikho isidingo sokuvakashela izindawo zokushaja zomphakathi.Okufanele ukwenze nje ukuxhuma imoto yakho endaweni yokushaja phakathi nosuku emsebenzini futhi ngokuvamile isikhathi eside usekhaya ebusuku.Kokubili kusebenzisa i-alternating current (i-alternating current), ehamba kancane futhi okusiza ukunweba impilo yebhethri.
Izimoto zikagesi kumele ekugcineni zibonakale sezizonke.Yingakho udinga uhlobo olulungile lwesiteshi sokushaja endaweni efanele.Iziteshi zokushaja zibe sezihambisana ukuze zenze inethiwekhi edidiyelwe.
Okuqinisekileyo, nokho, ukuthi ukushaja kwe-AC ekhaya noma emsebenzini kuzohlala kuyinketho eshibhile kubasebenzisi njengoba amanani wokushaja ahlukahluka kakhulu anikezwa kuze kube ngu-2025, okunciphisa ukushaja okusekelwa ngegridi.inani lamandla avuselelekayo atholakala kugridi, isikhathi sosuku noma ebusuku kanye nomthwalo kugridi, ukushaja ngaleso sikhathi kunciphisa izindleko ngokuzenzakalelayo.
Kunezizathu zobuchwepheshe, ezomnotho nezemvelo zalokhu, futhi ukuhlela ukushaja okuzimele (okuhlakaniphile) phakathi kwezimoto, ama-opharetha eziteshi zokushaja kanye nabaqhubi begridi kungaba yinzuzo.
Nakuba cishe u-10% wazo zonke izimoto ezithengiswa emhlabeni wonke ngo-2021 kuzoba izimoto zikagesi, kuphela u-0.3% wezimoto ezinkulu ezizothengiswa emhlabeni jikelele.Kuze kube manje, izimoto ezisebenza ngogesi ezisindayo zisatshalaliswe ngobuningi kuphela eChina ngokwesekwa nguhulumeni.Amanye amazwe amemezele izinhlelo zokufaka ugesi izimoto ezinkulu, futhi abakhiqizi bandisa ububanzi bemikhiqizo yabo.
Mayelana nokukhula, silindele isibalo sezimoto ezithwala ugesi emgwaqeni ukuthi zikhule ngo-2030. Uma izimoto ezisebenza ngogesi ezihlukile kune-diesel ezithwala kanzima zifinyelela ezingeni lokuphuka, okungukuthi uma zinezindleko eziphansi eziphelele zobunikazi, inketho izoqhubekela phambili. ugesi.Ngo-2026, cishe wonke amacala okusetshenziswa nezimo zomsebenzi zizofinyelela kancane kancane kuleli phuzu lokushintsha.Kungakho, ngokwezibikezelo, ukwamukelwa kwezitimela ezisebenza ngogesi kulezi zingxenye kuzoshuba kakhulu kunalokho esikubone ezimotweni zabagibeli esikhathini esidlule.
I-US iyisifunda esisalele emuva kweYurophu kuze kube manje ekuthuthukisweni kwezimoto ezisebenza ngogesi.Kodwa-ke, idatha yamanje iphakamisa ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi zase-US kukhule ngokushesha eminyakeni yamuva.
Izindleko eziphansi zokwehla kwamandla emali nezintengo zegesi eziphakeme, ingasaphathwa eyenqwaba yemikhiqizo emisha nephoqelelayo njengolayini ogcwele wamaveni namaloli okuthwala, kudale umfutho omusha wokwamukelwa kwezimoto zikagesi eMelika.Isabelo semakethe ye-EV esivele sihlaba umxhwele ogwini olusentshonalanga nasempumalanga manje isishintshela phakathi nezwe.
Ezindaweni eziningi, izimoto zikagesi ziyisinqumo esingcono kakhulu, hhayi nje ngenxa yezizathu zemvelo, kodwa futhi ngenxa yezizathu zezomnotho nezokusebenza.Ingqalasizinda yokushaja izimoto zikagesi nayo ikhula ngokushesha e-US, futhi inselele iwukuhambisana nesidingo esikhulayo.
Njengamanje iChina isesimweni sokuwohloka komnotho kancane, kodwa eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo izoshintsha isuke ekuthengeni izimoto kwamanye amazwe ishintshele ekubeni wumthengisi wezimoto.Isidingo sasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi silulame futhi sibonise amazinga okukhula aqinile ekuqaleni kuka-2023, kuyilapho abakhiqizi baseShayina bezothola isabelo esikhulayo semakethe eYurophu, e-US, e-Asia, e-Oceania naseNdiya eminyakeni ezayo.
Ngo-2027, i-China ingase ithathe amaphesenti angama-20 emakethe futhi ibe isidlali esihamba phambili ekwakhiweni kwezinto ezintsha kanye nokuhamba okusha esikhathini esimaphakathi neseside.Kungase kube nzima kakhulu kuma-OEMs endabuko aseYurophu nawaseMelika ukuncintisana nabaqhudelana nabo: ngokuya ngezingxenye ezibalulekile ezifana namabhethri nezinto zikagesi, ubuhlakani bokwenziwa kanye nokushayela ngokuzimela, i-China ayikude nje kuphela kodwa, okubaluleke kakhulu, ishesha.
Ngaphandle kwalapho ama-OEM endabuko engakhuphula ngokuphawulekayo ukuguquguquka kwawo ukuze asungule izinto ezintsha, i-China izokwazi ukuthatha ingxenye enkulu yephaya esikhathini esimaphakathi ukuya esikhathini eside.